Time and again I have said that Republicans are the only party who can screw up a one-car funeral procession.. and I am a Republican. Reason being that Republicans are fully capable of taking a good thing and hosing it all up before the final message has settled- infighting or imploding via own member dumb-assedness. Then there are the Democrats- the only party incapable of developing a plan for how they want to run a one-car funeral procession. Instead, it never happens and everyone looks for someone to blame. Thus, the American political machine grinds on in confusing and mind boggling fashion.
Here's a quick, high-level 411 on how delegates and nominations work within the two parties:
Republicans: Primary/caucuses involve registered party members going to voting centers on the identifed day and casting their lot for the party candidate of their choice. Almost all states involve a winner-take-all approach where the majority of votes capture all state delegates, aligning toward a specific candidate. Fairly straightforward in process, but the streets leading to the fall National Convention are paved with the carcasses of candidates who weren't quite attractive enough to one special interest group or another. The threshhold of delegates needed to capture party nomination is 1,191. Democrats: The same basic primary/caucus set-up as Republicans, involving registered party members voting for their candidate of choice. But then they go and share their delegates- splitting them up proportionately amongst candidates based on vote results. Unlike a scorched earth, winner-take-all concept where a clear front runner quickly emerges based on majority rules, no winner quickly emerges but everyone does manage to feel happy and like a winner regardless. Perhaps I forgot to mention that thrown squarely into this mix are something called "Super Delegates". 842 delegates (almost 40%) of the 2,025 needed to declare victory. Not chosen via voting, these delegates are instead individuals picked by Democratic fat-cats who can cast their votes however they like. For example, Bill Clinton gets one. Hmm.. I wonder who his delegate vote will go to? No matter what voters choose in their state primaries, Super-Delegates will have a significant impact on the Democratic nomination process above and beyond mere mortals casting their votes in a booth.
Checks and Balances
Beyond the shadow of a doubt, I am amazed at the foresight of our Founding Fathers in the way they established our Government. How they developed a system of checks and balances that 230 years later are still as effective as the day they were founded is astounding to me. Maybe they knew we would still be human in 2008, and that absolute power absolutely corrupts. That doesn't take rocket science... or whatever they had back then. The ultimate design strength of our system is the ability to ensure that no one branch of Government -Executive, Legislative or Judical- can become more powerful than another. Built into this is the inherent design that keeps one political party from becoming too powerful as well. Equilibrium at it's finest. Good one, George. You da man.
In 1994, Republicans developed and marketed a plan to the people called the "Contract With America". It worked. How a guy named after an amphibian and having an affair with a Congressional staffer drove that train is beyond me. But it essentially paved a way forward, established a road map for conservative values, and was designed to offset a Democratically controlled Congress and Presidency. Checks and balances in action. Democrats had President Clinton, Republicans controlled the House and Senate. Equilibrium.
In 2000, all that changed and from that point through 2006, the Democrats had anger and no plan in one election after another. The collective groaning crept in and reached fever pitch in 2005. So much for the group hug. But then in 2006, corruption, party-based decisions without public welfare in mind crept into the mindset, and it became clear that power had again become corrosive- this time under a Republican lost path. The ghosts of George, Tom, and Ben popped back up, checks and balances came back into play, and despite having no clear message or any path forward, voter disaffection drove Democrats back into the Congressional driver's seat with great fanfare. Equilibrium again.
Simply amazing. In 1994, and 2006, voters made sweeping changes based on dissatisfaction, and here we are. Balance restored, more moderation in Government and exactly the way that the majority of the country likes it- conscious of this or not (I think the safe money is on not). Too much of anything- Ice cream, steak, Ex-Lax, partisan politics.. and you get a stomach ache.
So Here We Are
Obama is pulling in millions more than Hillary in a manner unique to current fundraising models. Democrats are in a virtual dead heat between the popular vote and delegates needed to secure the nomination. Surprisingly, there is no clear leader. Bad blood between Hillary and Obama is leaving some to wonder whether party unification in the Democratic arena will erode all that they have worked so hard to gain. Where's that group hug again?
Then there's McCain. A Naval Academy grad, former Hanoi Hilton war hero, deficit hawk and national defense stalwart who can reach across party lines to work with the likes of Ted Kennedy and Arlen Specter. At a time where the vast majority of people in the nation keep saying over and over that they want change- and a Republican candidate who can do that- what do a small number of conservative Republicans do? Complain -loudly- about how they don't "like" McCain, stating that "they won't vote for him", saying they will vote for Clinton before they vote for McCain. Are you kidding me?? Are you related to Bill Belichik or something?
To me, all this means that a November win by whomever the Democratic nominee happens to be is hardly a slam dunk. Think George Bush in 1992 with his predicted landslide over Bill Clinton all but ordained the summer before elections. It also means that the Republican nominee- at this point looking like McCain- is also hardly a solid bet. It does tell me one thing though- whoever the two candidates are, they had better look to Congressional approval ratings, the ability for maverick candidates to gin up incredible support and the whole concept of checks and balances to figure out how to keep this great country on track.
So. Based on Super Tuesday, it's shaping up to be an interesting summer.
Back to Main: http://territoryahead.blogspot.com/
To specifically identify a type of blossom to give me flower foundation (is that an actual term?), I used the image at right. I didn't know it at the time I started, but there are apparently several different varieties of cherry blossom, stemming from several different variety of cherry tree. Go figure. In retrospect the fact that there are multiple cherry trees in the whole cherry tree family makes complete sense. But I think I spent even less time thinking about that then I did in naming my painting. So now I know. Huh. The things you learn.
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